Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Market Report: September 2026

September 2026 at a glance

The big story is a market split in two. Detached homes under about $850,000 drew multiple offers, while condos and townhouses gave buyers room to negotiate.

• Like for like, prices fell about 7%. Comparing homes of similar size, type and location, prices were about 6.6% lower than a year earlier, nearly double the 3.6% drop in the median.
• Detached homes got more competitive, not less. 43.4% sold over asking, up from 35.9% a year earlier. The median detached home sold for exactly its list price.
• Condos are the softest part of the market. The median condo sold for $332,875, down 18.8%, after 47.5 days on market. Only 4 of 38 sold over asking.
• The first two weeks set the price. Over the past 13 months, homes that sold within 14 days got a median 102.6% of asking. After day 30, that fell to 96.9%.
• Price cuts cost sellers about 6.8%. Homes that dropped their price sold for a median 93.2% of their earlier asking price, after 58 days on market.
• Moving up from a townhouse got harder. The gap between the average townhouse and the average detached home widened by about $27,500 in a year.
• Lower prices did not mean lower payments. The best 5-year fixed rate is 4.34%, up from about 3.79% a year ago. On the median home, that adds roughly $55 a month.

Kitchener-Waterloo housing market by the numbers

September 2026 matched last September on speed and competition, but with fewer sales and lower prices. Homes sold in the same 21 days and at the same 98.9% of asking, while the median price fell $25,000.

Measure	September 2026	September 2025	Change
Firm sales	282	319	−11.6%
Median sold price	$662,500	$687,500	−3.6%
Average sold price	$689,844	$739,883	−6.8%
Median price per sq ft (above grade)	$459	$479	−4.2%
Median days on market	21	21	No change
Median sale-to-list ratio	98.9%	98.9%	No change
Sold over asking	36.2%	35.7%	+0.5 pts
Sold 5% or more over asking	22.3%	16.3%	+6.0 pts
Had a price reduction	16.7%	19.1%	−2.4 pts
Had earlier time on the market	31.2%	31.0%	+0.2 pts

The average fell faster than the median because fewer luxury homes sold: 14 detached homes over $1.25 million, compared with 23 a year earlier.

Most homes still sold under asking, so how does the average sale-to-list ratio top 100%? The homes that went over pulled it up. The 102 homes that sold over asking went an average of $45,564 over, while the 160 that sold under went a median of $19,900 under.

Compared with August 2026, sales dipped from 308 to 282 and the median price held flat ($664,000 to $662,500). Competition picked up, though: the share sold over asking rose from 30.8% to 36.2%.

Across all of Waterloo Region, the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® reported a September average of $704,480, down 6.3% from a year earlier. Homes took an average 32 days to sell at 98.6% of asking, with 3.8 months of inventory, down from 4.0.

Home prices by type: detached, semi, townhouse and condo

Detached homes barely moved in price in September 2026, while condo and townhouse prices fell the most. The median detached home sold for $750,000, down 2.0% from a year earlier.

Home type	Sales	Median price	vs. Sept 2025	Median $/sq ft	vs. Sept 2025	Median days on market	Sold over asking
Detached	175	$750,000	−2.0%	$492	−4.7%	16	43.4%
Semi-detached	20	$608,000	−4.5%	$445	−10.9%	21	40.0%
Townhouse	49	$450,000	−19.7%	$398	−3.4%	27	28.6%
Condo apartment	38	$332,875	−18.8%	$442	−7.1%	48	10.5%

Average prices tell the same story: detached $816,581 (−6.1%), semi-detached $634,203 (−2.5%), townhouse $497,784 (−14.0%) and condo apartment $383,129 (−12.2%). See homes for sale by property type for what each type costs across the region.

Kitchener vs. Waterloo home prices

Waterloo held its value better than Kitchener this September, though not by as much as the headline numbers suggest. Waterloo's median slipped just 1.4% and its average rose 3.5%, while Kitchener's median fell 6.6%.

City	Sales	Median price	vs. Sept 2025	Average price	vs. Sept 2025	Median $/sq ft	Sold over asking
Kitchener	195	$635,000	−6.6%	$644,601	−11.6%	$454	37.4%
Waterloo	87	$720,000	−1.4%	$791,251	+3.5%	$477	33.3%

• Waterloo's average rose because more detached homes sold. Detached homes made up 64% of Waterloo sales, up from 50% a year earlier, while the average price of every home type in Waterloo fell. Holding the mix of home types steady, Waterloo's average fell about 4% and Kitchener's about 10%.
• Waterloo detached homes held their value per square foot. Their median price per square foot rose 2.8% to $536, and they sold in a median 12.5 days.
• Kitchener detached homes drew more bidding. 44.5% sold over asking, but their price per square foot fell 7.2% to $475.
• Kitchener condos fell hardest. The median Kitchener condo sold for $307,000, down 19.2%, and its price per square foot dropped 13.1%.

What the averages hide: 9 deeper findings

Medians and averages say prices dipped a few percent. The full 13 months of sales behind them (4,040 firm sales, September 2025 to September 2026) show where buyers compete, where they negotiate, and what mispricing costs a seller.

1. Like for like, prices fell about 7%

The median fell 3.6%, but each month's median is made of different homes. A statistical model that compares September 2025 and September 2026 sales of similar size, home type, bedrooms, bathrooms, finished basement and neighbourhood puts prices about 6.6% lower, with a likely range of 4% to 9%. Holding just the mix of home types steady gives a similar answer: the average fell 7.5%, not 6.8%.

The same mix effect makes some single-type headlines look scarier than they are. The median townhouse sold for 19.7% less than a year ago, but three-bedroom townhouses fell only 3.3%. Townhouse price per square foot held between $406 and $426 from September 2025 to July 2026, then slipped to $389 in August and $398 in September: a real but recent and smaller drop.

Condos show the same effect. The median condo fell 15% from August to September, yet condo price per square foot barely moved ($440 to $442). Fewer Waterloo condos sold (13 of 38, down from 20) and the units were smaller.

2. The first 14 days set your price

Homes that sell in their first two weeks sell for more. Over the past 13 months, 37% of homes sold within 14 days, at a median 102.6% of asking, and 64% of them went over asking. Homes that took more than 30 days sold at a median 96.9%, and only 9% went over asking.

That 5.7-point gap is worth about $38,000 on a $662,500 home.

3. A price cut costs about 6.8%

Nearly one in five homes (738 sales, 18%) cut its price before selling. Those homes sold for a median 93.2% of their earlier asking price, after a median 58 days on market. Homes that never cut sold in 16 days at 99.2% of asking.

On a home first listed at $700,000, that is roughly $48,000 below the original ask.

4. "Days on market" hides how long homes really sit

The days-on-market count resets when a listing is cancelled and relisted. In September, 31% of sales had earlier time on the market. Their listings showed a median 24 days on market, but their true time for sale was 94 days.

Condos are the extreme. 42% of September condo sales had earlier time on the market, and the median condo spent 92.5 days for sale in total. Buyers should always ask for cumulative days on market: a "new" listing can be three months old.

5. The hot zone is $600,000 to $850,000

Competition peaks just below the million-dollar mark. From July to September 2026, 51.5% of homes priced $700,000 to $800,000 sold over asking, in a median 16 days. Under $400,000, where 68% of sales were condos, only 8.6% sold over asking and homes took 41 days.

Among detached homes alone, 49.8% of those between $700,000 and $850,000 sold over asking, against 32.5% between $850,000 and $1 million. This is the price range for a first detached home, or a family upsizing from a townhouse. It has the most crowded buyer pool in Kitchener-Waterloo.

6. Split-levels are the sleeper hit for families

From April to September 2026, 52% of detached split-levels (backsplits, sidesplits and multi-level splits) sold over asking, in a median 14 days. That beat bungalows (48.3%) and two-storey homes (42.7%).

The median split-level sold for $739,500, about $120,000 less than the median two-storey ($860,000). Split-levels give a growing family separate levels for kids, adults and a rec room, at a lower price. Buyers have noticed.

7. Ten years on: which homes gained the most since 2016

Ontario property assessments are still based on January 1, 2016 values. Comparing sale prices with those assessments gives a rough ten-year scorecard.

Home type	Sales (13 months)	Median sale price as a multiple of 2016 assessment
Semi-detached	258	2.27×
Detached	2,400	2.14×
Townhouse	768	2.09×
Condo apartment	545	1.65×

Semis, detached homes and townhouses have roughly doubled since 2016, while condos rose about 65%. For condo owners hoping to move up, that means less equity to carry into the next home. Assessments are estimates, so treat this as a gauge, not an appraisal.

8. Moving up got harder from a townhouse, easier from a semi

Whether upsizing got easier depends on what you own now. The table compares average sale prices with the average detached home.

Starting from	Gap to detached, Sept 2025	Gap to detached, Sept 2026	Change
Townhouse	$291,294	$318,798	+$27,504
Semi-detached	$219,245	$182,379	−$36,866
Condo apartment	$433,370	$433,453	+$83

Cornerstone's regional averages point the same way: the townhouse-to-detached gap widened by about $39,700, and the semi-to-detached gap narrowed by about $48,200. In August, townhouse owners had gained a little ground. September reversed that. For the full playbook, see moving up with a growing family.

9. Your payment did not fall with the price

The median home sold for $25,000 less than a year ago, but borrowing costs more. With 20% down, a 25-year amortization and the best 5-year fixed rate, the monthly payment rose about $55.

	September 2025	September 2026
Median sold price	$687,500	$662,500
Best 5-year fixed rate	about 3.79%	4.34%
Monthly payment, 20% down, 25 years	about $2,831	about $2,886

At today's best 5-year variable rate of 3.40%, the same mortgage costs about $2,618 a month. Rates are from Ratehub; the payments are estimates, not mortgage advice.

Neighbourhood heat map: where homes sell fastest in Kitchener-Waterloo

The most competitive neighbourhoods are established areas where detached homes still sell in the $600,000s and low $700,000s. The neighbourhoods with the most room to negotiate are condo-heavy downtowns, the university district, and pricier areas with larger homes.

The tables use six months of sales (April to September 2026) for a reliable sample, and include only neighbourhoods with at least 30 sales.

Most competitive neighbourhoods

Neighbourhood (MLS district)	Sales	Median price	Sold over asking	Median sale-to-list	Median days on market
Grand River North	30	$750,000	63.3%	102.9%	13.5
Forest Hill	74	$609,500	55.4%	101.2%	14
Stanley Park/Centreville	60	$647,500	53.3%	100.6%	16
Westvale	56	$725,000	50.0%	99.7%	14.5
Alpine Village/Country Hills	44	$650,000	50.0%	100.0%	16
Heritage Park/Rosemount	64	$682,500	48.4%	100.0%	13

Neighbourhoods with the most room to negotiate

Neighbourhood (MLS district)	Sales	Median price	Sold over asking	Median sale-to-list	Median days on market
Downtown Kitchener/W. Ward	46	$465,000	13.0%	97.5%	26
Downtown Kitchener/East Ward	81	$591,000	23.5%	98.1%	27
Chicopee/Freeport	46	$589,500	23.9%	98.2%	26
Beechwood/University	98	$500,000	24.5%	96.5%	26
Uptown Waterloo/Westmount	99	$740,000	26.3%	98.0%	18
Columbia Forest/Clair Hills	76	$860,000	27.6%	98.0%	18.5

Across all of Kitchener-Waterloo over the same six months, 38.6% of homes sold over asking, in a median 18 days. Lakeshore North (29.0%) and Trussler (29.7%) sat just outside the list. Trussler was the slowest area at a median 37 days, though its homes still sold at a median 100% of asking.

Grand River North stands out. Nearly two in three homes there sold over asking, at a median 102.9% of list price. Browse every area in the Kitchener-Waterloo neighbourhoods guide.

What is driving the Kitchener-Waterloo market this fall

Three forces explain September: rising fixed mortgage rates, a weaker local job market, and stalled population growth. The last two hit condos and rentals hardest.

Interest rates: the Bank of Canada is on hold, but fixed rates are rising

• The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, its sixth hold this year. The rate has not changed since October 2025, and the next decision is October 28, 2026 (Bank of Canada).
• The Bank said inflation has hovered around 3%, mostly because of gasoline prices, and noted "some rebound in housing activity."
• Fixed rates are climbing anyway. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield hit a 52-week high of 3.73% on September 28, and CIBC and TD raised fixed rates on September 29 (Canadian Mortgage Trends).
• The best 5-year fixed rate was 4.34% on October 1, against 3.40% for the best insured variable rate (Ratehub fixed, Ratehub variable).

Higher fixed rates at the end of September could cool October demand, especially for buyers already at the top of their budget.

Local jobs: unemployment is well above the national rate

• Unemployment in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo was 8.2% in August 2026, up from 7.1% a year earlier. The national rate was 6.4% (BNN Bloomberg, Aug 2026; Aug 2025).
• Local full-time employment is still about 4,000 jobs below its May 2025 peak (CREA).
• CMHC calls the region one of Ontario's most tariff-exposed economies because of its auto and parts manufacturing (CMHC Rental Market Report, fall 2025).

Job worries keep some buyers waiting, which helps explain 11.6% fewer sales. The buyers still shopping are concentrated in the detached range, where competition actually rose.

Population growth has stalled, but households keep forming

• Waterloo Region's population grew by just 90 people in 2025, mainly because fewer international students arrived. The number of households grew by 3,720. Kitchener added 1,860 people and 3,000 households, while the City of Waterloo lost 650 people (Region of Waterloo, Year-End 2025 Population and Households Bulletin).
• Canada's 2026 target for new international students is 155,000, down from a target of 305,900 in 2025 (CIC News). Conestoga College laid off another 32 full-time faculty in August (CTV News).
• The purpose-built rental vacancy rate in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo held at 4.1% in CMHC's last survey, a multi-decade high.

Fewer students and newcomers mean fewer renters, and many Kitchener-Waterloo condos were bought by investors to rent out. That is a big reason condos are the slowest, softest segment in this report. Household growth tells a different story: more households means more people needing a home of their own, which helps explain why family-sized homes stayed competitive even as sales fell.

Supply: more new homes, but very few new detached houses

• Builders started 2,822 homes in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo from January to August 2026, up 25% from a year earlier. Only 262 were single-detached (CMHC).
• In January, the Region confirmed a water capacity constraint in the Mannheim service area, which supplies Kitchener and Waterloo. New development approvals that add water demand could not proceed until new infrastructure was in place (Region of Waterloo). In July it restored enough capacity for up to 10,500 residents (Region of Waterloo).
• Ontario has announced, subject to legislation, a rebate of the full 13% HST on new homes up to $1 million, with the $130,000 maximum held for homes up to $1.5 million, for agreements signed April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027 (Ontario).

New supply is mostly multi-unit homes such as townhouses and apartments, and the HST relief makes new ones cheaper for buyers who qualify. Resale townhouses and condos now compete with those new units, while resale detached homes face little new competition.

How Kitchener-Waterloo compares with Canada and Toronto

Market (August 2026)	Measure	Change vs. a year earlier
Kitchener-Waterloo	MLS® HPI benchmark price ($628,300)	−6.0%
Canada	MLS® HPI composite benchmark	−3.0%
Canada	Average price ($668,219)	+0.6%
Toronto (TRREB)	MLS® HPI composite benchmark	−4.5%
Toronto (TRREB)	Average price ($993,410)	−2.7%

Kitchener-Waterloo prices fell faster than the national benchmark, but the local market is tighter. Waterloo Region had 3.8 months of inventory in September, against 4.8 months nationally in August. Cornerstone CEO Bill Duce put it plainly: "Waterloo Region remains the tightest market across our coverage area, yet buyers still have more selection than in previous years" (CREA board page; CREA national; TRREB).

What this means for buyers, sellers and growing families

September 2026 rewards prepared buyers in the condo and townhouse range, and well-priced sellers in the detached range. What happens next will likely follow the calendar.

What to expect this fall

Last year is a useful guide. From September to December 2025, the share of homes selling over asking fell from 36% to 25%. Median days on market rose from 21 to 35, and the share of sales with a price cut rose from 19% to 31%. Spring brought competition back: from March to June 2026, 40% to 43% of homes sold over asking.

Expect a similar fall slowdown in 2026. It could be sharper if fixed rates keep rising after the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision.

If you are buying

• Condos and townhouses: negotiate. 87% of September condo sales closed under asking, at a median 3.5% below list. Ask for the price history and cumulative days on market; a relisted home is your best leverage.
• Detached under $850,000: come ready. Get pre-approved, see new listings in their first week, and expect competition on well-priced homes.
• Look at split-levels and bungalows. A split-level gives a family more separate living space for about $120,000 less than the median two-storey.
• Late fall and winter are your window. From November 2025 to January 2026, 68% to 73% of homes sold under asking.
• Compare fixed and variable quotes. The gap between the best rates is now almost a full percentage point.

More in the Kitchener-Waterloo home buyer's guide and the first-time buyer guide.

If you are selling

• Price it right the first time. Homes that sold within 14 days got a median 102.6% of asking. Homes that cut their price got 93.2% of their original ask.
• List soon, or plan for spring. Last year, the share of homes selling over asking dropped from 38.0% in October to 28.5% in November.
• Detached owners are in the strongest position. 43.4% of detached homes sold over asking in September, up from 35.9%.
• Condo owners should price to the market from day one. The median condo took 48 days to sell, and 42% had earlier time on the market.

More in the guide to selling your home in Kitchener-Waterloo, and if you need to do both, selling and buying at the same time.

For growing families

Family homes (freehold homes with 3 or more bedrooms and 2 or more bathrooms) made up 68% of September sales. Their median price was $740,000, down 3.3% from $765,000. They sold in a median 17 days, and 40.4% went over asking.

The entry point fell too. One in four family homes sold for $645,000 or less, compared with $670,500 a year earlier. 78 family homes sold under $700,000 in September, up from 72.

One financing note for move-up families: if you put less than 20% down, the 30-year insured amortization is only for first-time buyers and new builds. Selling one resale home to buy another usually means a 25-year insured amortization, which raises the monthly payment (Department of Finance Canada).

If you're a growing family, the trade-off is speed or space. The hottest family neighbourhoods (Grand River North, Forest Hill, Stanley Park/Centreville) need a fast, firm offer. Columbia Forest/Clair Hills and Chicopee/Freeport give you more time and room to negotiate.

How we calculated these numbers

This report analyzes 4,040 firm residential sales in Kitchener and Waterloo from September 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026, from ITSO MLS® System data provided through the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®.

• Sales are counted by firm date, the day the deal went firm, not the closing date. 239 of September's 282 sales had not closed yet, and a few late-reported September sales may still be added.
• Excluded: 2 parking-space records and 2 sales whose list price looked like an entry error.
• Sale-to-list ratio is the sold price divided by the final list price. "Over asking" means the sold price was above the final list price.
• Price cuts count sales whose previous list price was higher than the final list price.
• Days on market counts the current listing only. Cumulative days on market adds earlier listings of the same home; a sale had "earlier time on the market" when the two differ.
• Price per square foot uses above-grade finished space.
• Neighbourhoods are MLS districts. Some cross the Kitchener-Waterloo city line.
• Family homes are freehold homes with 3 or more bedrooms and 2 or more bathrooms.
• The like-for-like estimate is a regression of sale price on month, above-grade size, bedrooms, bathrooms, finished basement, home type, condo ownership, city and neighbourhood, using 600 sales from September 2025 and September 2026 (R² 0.86). It is a cross-check, not an appraisal or an official price index.
• The 2016 assessment multiple divides each sold price by its MPAC assessment (January 1, 2016 valuation date), for 3,971 sales with an assessment of $50,000 or more.
• Mortgage payments assume 20% down, a 25-year amortization and Canadian semi-annual compounding. The year-ago rate is Ratehub's lowest 5-year fixed rate reported in October 2025.
• Waterloo Region figures are from the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®, September 2026.

Average and median prices are affected by the mix of homes sold in a month and should not be treated as a valuation of a specific home.

Sources: Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® statistics for Waterloo Region and ITSO MLS® System data for Kitchener and Waterloo, compiled by George Dmitrovic. Also cited: Bank of Canada, Ratehub, Canadian Mortgage Trends, CREA, TRREB, CMHC, Region of Waterloo, Government of Ontario, Region of Waterloo population bulletin, Department of Finance Canada and BNN Bloomberg. Figures are for the period named in this post.